SOOTHSAYER CONSENSUS (Negative Consensus/Bull Market Indicator) Dismal scientists take down estimates...again
June 22, 2015
We’ve seen flurry of forecasts by many big-wig market strategists (aka Soothsayers) with the trend of slower global economic growth. Here are the latest prognostications.
Citigroup: Global GDP falling from 2.7 to 2.6%
World Bank: Global GDP falling from 3.2 to 2.8%
International Monetary Fund: Global growth will fall from 3.8 to 3.5%
Common candidates for blame for the "meh-conomy" include China, strengthening US dollar, and oh yes that Greece thing.
They could be right. The one big shadow that is being cast upon the world is the prospect of interest rate in the US rising, which could set off a round of capital reallocation away from emerging and foreign markets back to the US. A continuing rising dollar could act as a drag for local exports which could further exasperate the malaise…
…or it may not. The sense from the Federal Reserve is that it is clearly worried about something because even the most mediocre of economic recoveries should be enough impetus to normalize interest rates but for some reason the Federal Reserve is uber hesitant to do so. Right now they are talking the talk but not walking it. As long as this musical chairs form of monetary policy is in place, the environment is there for economic growth and more specifically stock prices to continue surprising on the upside.