You can't go one direction in the stock market these days without hearing something about Tesla. It has become the classic retail stock. Their CEO has said a few things recently that have had the markets in a tizzy. I've never really looked at Tesla stock because just eyeballing it, it looked overpriced. Well I thought with all the hysteria going on that maybe this is a good time to dive in and have a look at the company. This is my mind map video on my quick analysis of Tesla to see if it may be worth picking up. Podcast version is available here.
Starbucks stock has been getting crushed the last few months. Weak forecasts, some not so great PR events started taking the stock down. It got me interested to see if it may be worth picking up as it seems to be out of favour by Wall Street. In this video I take a little dive into Starbucks and scratch out my thought process that led me to buy shares in Starbucks.
Fitting into my theme of investing in companies that can own the OS, JD.com is positioning itself to become a real player in online retailing. It has been one of the big players in the China market and it is looking to branch out to other parts of Asia. It is very aligned with other players like Tencent and Walmart and aggressively building out its retail ecosystem channels. The stock has been falling and some say the US trade tariff sabre rattling has put pressure on China stocks. In this video I share my mind map exercise that I used to evaluate and ultimately led to my decision to buy into JD.com.
UPDATE 1: Since I made the decision, some significant news has come out. It was announced that Alphabet had made a $550 million dollar investment in JD. I think its a big deal in that it validates JD's value proposition. JD has now entered partnerships with Alphabet, TenCent, and Walmart. These are companies that are aggressively trying to build out online ecosystems to own the OSfor distribution in retail. Whoever can control that online platform has a good chance at building durable competitive advantage. Whatever happens, JD has connections with all the main players. The Alphabet connection also signals that both parties are looking to take on Amazon.
UPDATE 2: Since the Alphabet announcement, more events have occurred, specifically from the Mad King himself, who pondering restricting Chinese companies from investing in American technology companies. I wonder now if the JD/Alphabet partnership is now in doubt given the Eye of Sauron is now looking upon China quite aggressively. I cite the potential of a tariff tit-for-tat as serious risk factor that could negatively impact JD.com and other China stocks.
UPDATE #3: Sold shares in JD.com (Ticker: JD) for 28.5 percent loss (Net Forex). This was a tough one. I still think the fundamentals of the business are quite solid as they are aggressively positioning themselves being the OS for retail in China and Asia. They have aligned themselves with some heavy weights (Walmart, Tencent, Google) to build out a formidable retail ecosystem.
So what changed my thinking? Math. The stock fell through the $30 level and my loss position was well over 20 percent. Basic math tells me that the stock would have to pop back over 25 percent to just get to break-even, which given the volatile nature of the stock is quite possible.
The other factor comes to governance. Richard Liu the CEO was arrested for alleged assault and then released in the US in August. He since returned to China. The police said the charges could not be substantiated and so he was released. There have been rumblings that this is not the first time this has happened and so there is a serious cloud on the leadership. Adding to this is that the management structure has been setup so that Liu because of his significant ownership of shares can still run the company. This is a big distraction and I think this will stick to the company.
I was down 28.5 percent which means the stock would have to up almost 40 percent for me to break-even which I think will be pretty tough under this current dynamic. Following my playbook on managing with losses, I decided to sell now and move on. It’s a tough one as at one point the stock was trading in the high $40’s and so I was in a good position. That’s the way investing goes sometimes.
MGM has not been on my watchlist and I really wasn't thinking about getting into casino stocks but a recent Supreme Court decisions that essentially legalized sports gambling in the US I thought was a game changer movement that could really put gaming companies in a strong position to move. I did a quick scan and MGM appeared to be not the most producing gaming company but what drew me was management's foresight to build out sports betting platforms and services in the anticipation of the legalization of sports betting. In this episode I do a quick deep dive that lead me to the decision to buy some MGM stock.
I've had Johnson and Johnson on my watch list for a long time. I've held it in the past and I got a pretty good return on it. After I sold when it was in the $70's the stock kept on moving and literally doubled. I thought I may never get back in but the stock since the start of the year has been falling and it went down into the mid $120's when I thought it would be good to take a look again. In this video I do a quick dive into JNJ to see if it is still worthy to include in my portfolio.
Consumers staples stocks have not been getting a lot of love in the last while. It has been lagging the S&P 500 index for quite a while. This despite companies continuing to generate strong profit and cash flows. I've been motivated to get some exposure to the space, but I just haven't had much time to do a deep dive, so I decided I would instead buy a basket of consumer staples stocks via Exchange Traded Funds. Here is my mind map video where I did a quick evaluation of several prominent US consumer staples ETF's. I apply the concepts I teach in my How To Invest in ETF's course to identify the best ETF for my portfolio.
I've been wanting to get some exposure to health care stocks. Problem with health care stocks, especially pharmaceutical and drug companies is the regulatory burdens of getting drugs approved, limited exclusivity of selling the drug once you've got approval. Figuring out what drug stocks to buy is almost like buying a lottery ticket and I just haven't had a good go of it, but I still want my portfolios to have some meaningful exposure so I thought ETF's would be a better way to go. The drug stocks have been lagging the market lately so I thought this may be a good opportunity to buy in at lower price point. In this video I evaluate several pharmaceutical ETF's and incorporate the teachings from my course on How to Invest in ETF's to figure out which ETF will serve the purpose.
Update - August 16, 2018
I just sold my position for an 18.9 percent gain.
This is my second foray into Southwest Airlines. I bought into Southwest in August 2016 and I was able to generate a return of 25.9 percent. The stock has been tracking down the last few weeks so I decided to take a look again and see if there was an opportunity to jump back in. Even though I’ve analyzed the company, I still ask the same 8 questions about the company.
This is my second time owning Big Lots. I bought in 2011 on separate occasions and earned 21 percent and 9 percent respectively. I kept it on my wish list since because I felt that the discount retail space is a growing one given the hollowing out of the middle class and polarization between high and low income consumers. I never bought back in as the stock really took off and I just thought it became too expensive for my liking. In the last while the stock had been pulling back down from the $60’s to its current level in the low to mid $40’s, which caught my attention so I decided to dive in and take a look at it. Like always my dive into Big Lots involved answering those pesky but important 8 questions. In this mind map video, I walk through my answers that led me to buy shares.
I noticed that Restaurant Brands stock has been tracking down a fair bit. One of Restaurant Brands core assets, aka Tim Hortons has been getting a lot bad press. I was thinking maybe it would be a good time to take a look at the company to see if there was an opportunity to buy in. In this video I scratch out my thought process and evaluation of Timmy's parent company.
One weekend, a bunch of decided to meet up at the Keg for "dinner". We all have kids so dinner ended up being at 4:45pm. We went to the Keg near the airport in Toronto because we thought it would be quiet compared to one's near our places. Boy were we wrong. The place was packed and it turned out we had to sit in separate tables because we missed the reservation by 5 minutes. I got me to thinking that maybe I should take a look at the stock. In this video I share my quick size-up of the company and their stock.
The stock had been falling because of the February market seizure and ever since I got into this mindset about looking for companies that can own ecosystems or OS's of specific industries, I thought maybe Priceline could have the potential to be one of those big players who could control the OS for travel. I share my thought process and size-up of the company and stock. which is now called Booking Holdings.
In March 2018, the position was sold for a 23.9 percent gain (Net Forex)
The stock market finally showed a little personality the past few weeks. There have been an endless list of reasons offered. In this mind map, I tried to scratch out some core reasons that made investors take pause about owning stocks and tried to figure out possible scenarios about where we can go from here.
Just recently I made a decision to buy shares in Baidu. In this mind map, I share my thought process that lead me to my decision. For every decision I make I try to answer some core fundamental questions about the company. After answering them, I usually have a pretty good idea whether I want to buy their stock or not.
UPDATE: In June 2018 I sold my shares in Baidu for a 23.1% gain (net of Foreign Exchange). The stock was prodding along in the low $220's and got as low as $214 but then it popped and I eventually sold at $271. I thought the stock moved pretty fast and crossed my 20 percent return threshold that I thought maybe it's good to bank the profit now and buy back in if it were to pull back lower, which given the volatile nature of the stock is more than capable of. I still like the company and many of the points I spoke to in this mind map video are still in play.
Where I walk through my thought process and rationale in my decision to buy shares in Winpak.
In some recent sessions that I've facilitated, I've heard discussions around getting into Snapchat stock. The main driver is there is a school of thought that SNAP is following a similar evolution that Facebook went through (i.e. IPO with the stock going up, only to pull back to below the IPO price, but then surging after). I decided to take a quick dive into the whole phone camera messaging company and scratch out some ideas to see if there is an investing opportunity to be had.
I've had this company in my radar screen for a long time but I could never pull the trigger to buy it as I thought it was too pricey. This year the stock has been steadily tracking down and so I decided to take dive in and see if it would an interesting investment now. In this video I mind map my thought process that led to my decision to buy shares in Cheesecake Factory (Ticker: CAKE).
In May 2018, this position was sold for a gain of 20.8% (Net Forex).
Recently I just made a decision to buy some shares in Costco. In this video I share my mind-map and my though process that went through to make my decision. For every stock and company I evaluate, I always ask the same basic questions and once I am able to answer them, I feel I should have a decent understanding of the business and I should be able to determine if I want to buy the stock or sell the stock.