INVESTOR CONSENSUS (Negative Consensus/Bull Market Indicator) Going short
August 20, 2015
We decided to take a look at what sectors the Investor Consensus is feeling gloomy about right now. It appears that Energy, Telecom and Industrials are getting little love right now when we look at the current snapshot of short interest positions.
From another perspective, in terms of net buyer positions, Technology and Consumer Staples companies are also facing a buyers strike from investors.
We are always interested in identifying what investors don't like as, often today's losers become tomorrow's winners.
Energy we know quite a bit now about the catalysts that have taken it down. It's interesting that Industrials are not creating much enthusiasm. A healthy economy should have strong capital investment behind it, but companies that are flush with capital and in the absence of any meaningful uptick in demand are instead voting for buybacks and dividends to make Wall Street and Bay Street happy instead of redeploying the capital into developing products and services or investing in more productive equipment and technology.
That being said, with such pessimism towards these sectors, opportunities could be at hand to take the other side of the pessimism and pick up some well run, high-quality, best of breed companies on the cheap. Oil prices may have more further to fall and so great opportunities could continue to present itself to take some long term positions.