Hamptons Consensus (Positive/Bear Market Indicator): 

Long Island Getting Its Gatsby On

While there is a great deal of hand wringing going on about how sustainable this 5 year generational bull market/game of musical chairs can be, you won’t find any in the Hamptons, the home and weekend getaway of the East Coast financial elites according to Nicholas Colas, chief strategist  ConvergEx. Mr. Colas wrote an interesting piece that puts some colour on the level of confidence the Wall Street minions have on the stock market. Right now it's off the charts.

“…On the surface, the upcoming July 4th weekend in the Hamptons has all the earmarks of a very confident New York/Wall Street community as we trot into the back half of 2014. Just a few data points here:

  • The newest and nicest hotel in the Hamptons at the moment is the Topping Rose House, refurbished in 2012 after a long period of disrepair and also substantially expanded. Rooms here during the summer go for $2,000/night and often have a 2-3 night minimum. They are sold out this weekend.
  • Nick & Toni’s may not be the fanciest place in East Hampton, but it has a serious celebrity following.  And this July 4th weekend, you’ll need that status to get a table. They are fully committed from Friday to Sunday during dinner hours.
  • Pierre’s in Bridgehampton has had its ups and downs in terms of service quality over the past few years, but the food has always been like a quick trip to Antibes or Cannes.  They ship their own special rose wine over from France for the summer season – it’s usually all gone by early August.  They have availability for dinner at 5:45 or 6:00 pm, which for many French restaurants is almost lunch hours. So book early, book often, order the blue bottle of rose and wait for the rest of the world to shuffle in at 8pm…
  • If you are young and lively, the Capri Hotel in Southampton is your scene.  Last summer the guest restaurant on the property was Nobu.  This year it is BLT Steak.  There is a serious singles scene by the pool. And yes, they are sold out this weekend.  And next weekend.  Mid-August is available for $462.33/night…  Until it isn’t. …”

I don’t think it would be a stretch to say that they feel pretty good about things right now. There is truly an air of Gatsby permeating the New York suburbs. Worried about the markets tanking? Who needs that when you can spend your weekends like this…

Queue the gluttony

Queue the gluttony

Welcome to 2006. Queue the gluttony and hold on tight. These moments of hubris can get pretty bumpy very fast.