Consensus Observations - March-April 2016

The observations of Consensus have skewed towards the dark side in the past few months. Here are some of the more notable snapshots.

Positive Consensus

Don’t Buy Stocks that make the “The Most Admired List” – March 19 2016

Whenever I see articles like this I definitely read them because they tell me directly what stocks I shouldn’t be buying. Sure enough Apple is on the list and we know how that story has been playing.


As US Ports Go, So Goes the US Economy – March 18 2016

You don’t need to be data dependentlike the Federal Reserve to figure out what’s going on in the economy. Just go to your local port and see how busy those cranes are in loading/unloading shipping containers. Right now, the cranes are in overdrive.


Negative Consensus

Corporate Sales and profits falling – April 16, 2016

At the end of the day profitable businesses lead to profitable stocks. Right now eventhough the ports are moving like gangbusters, it appears to not be translating to the bottom line.

Stock Ownership Falling

Despite a one for the ages bull market, investors just don’t seem to have the mojo for stocks.

Pro’s Cautious on Markets

From Barrons – Spring 2016

I’m always interested in hearing what the Soothsayer Consensus has to say about the present and future. Here are the latest pontifications courtesy of the Barrons. I’m more prone to take the other side of the trade.

  • 38% Bullish vs 62% Bearish/Neutral
  • Is market overvalued ? 62% fair value, 26 over value 12% undervalued
  • Clients are 70% neutral, 11 % bullish, 19% bearish
  • 68 % expect stocks to fall
  • Favorite Stocks Apple, Cisco, Exxon Mobil, Walt Disney, Microsoft
  • Best performing sector next 12 months = Energy (28%)
  • Worst performing sector next 12 months = Utilities
  • Oil will close at $44.45 by year end
  • Gold will close at $1272 at year end